Central Coast Area

[SteveC]

I've noticed not many trips on lately. If I recall there was one last year around the Wattagans and Palmdale Road?? which seemed good though I never went to the 2nd one and broke my shaft at wattagans..
Any one interested in doing a trip in a couple of weeks? Perhaps Sat 5 June.
Might need a hand with leading though.

[JK_Dolf]

I'd be keen for a trip sometime in the near future... I've recently moved up to the coast so it's been a long time between trips for me. I feel like a bad parent for neglecting my Jeep's offroad needs.

Unfortunately the 5th/6th are out for me, Im off on a tree felling course.

[SteveC]

D.K I sent you PM not sure if you got it?

[goldeneagle05]

will put up a date for another ourimbah forrest day in next week when I check work, have lots oe weekends off soon, Olly

[SteveC]

Any Interested parties??

[Steve F]

I'm keen but the Jeep is off the road for a few more weeks yet, cant really go until the end of June.

Cheers
Steve

[Reszo]

Hello - I would be keen on a day trip. Itching to get my new Jeep dirty.

[MOP44R]

Im keen to Steve, Love the Watagans and have been very sluck of late. Havent put it in 4L in about 6 weeks or so...

[easy_rider]

I am interested in either Ourimbah or Wattagans, but any other weekend but 4-5 June; free this weekend, 12 or 13 June, week after ...

perhaps could try A grade hill at first powerlines (if coming from Wyong via Forrest Road) - the one we first could not find and on the way back did not try due to rain

[SteveC]

Looks Like Golden eagle is running a trip on 20th,suggest that.

[easy_rider]

anyone free this Sunday for Wattagans?

[AussieCJ7]

anyone free this Sunday for Wattagans?

The news last night had some big storm warnings for Sunday ( suggesting the weather could be worse than the storm that blew the pasha-bulka onto the beach at newcaste a few years back)

You might want to check it out before planning too much

[Maggie]

The Association has received the following SES Breifing Note and I circulate for your information.

If you have trips planned on the Eastern Coast and hinterlands, may be caution should be considered.

SES Briefing Note: Potential for Severe Weather commencing 28 May 2010

Background:

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) currently advise a low pressure system off the coast of NSW has the potential to form an East Coast Low impacting across a footprint area from the Hunter coast in the north to the far NSW South Coast and adjacent ranges, by Sunday 30 May 2010.

Current Situation:

This low pressure system has the potential to deliver severe weather over a 2-3 day period commencing from Saturday 29 May. The forecast includes heavy rainfall with possibility of minor to moderate riverine flooding, gale force winds, heavy seas and swell conditions. The greatest impact of this weather system is predicted to occur Sunday through to Monday, with the South Coast, Shoalhaven and identified as having the greatest potential for riverine flooding.

Predictions of 100 – 150mm rainfall over a 24 hour period are possible in affected areas.

The BOM indicate the possibility of Flood Watches and severe weather warning by Saturday 29 May.
BoM Severe Weather team and hydrologists will monitor rainfall in affected catchments during Friday 28 May, leading into the weekend.
SES posturing for operational response at State, Region and Unit level commencing early Saturday 28th.
SES planning and strategies continuing for the potential impacts of this weather activity on the Upper Bulli Rail Basin Dam, in light of concerns and SES evacuation response actions of 26 May.
SEMC members will be receive a follow up brief by the afternoon of Friday 28 May, on developments and SES response plans to be undertaken in relation to this Severe Weather event.

GENERAL INFORMATION - EAST COAST LOWS

What is an East Coast Low ?

East Coast Lows (ECL) are intense low-pressure systems which occur on average several times each year off the eastern coast of Australia, in particular southern Queensland, NSW and eastern Victoria.
Although they can occur at any time of the year, they are more common during Autumn and Winter with a maximum frequency in June. East Coast Lows will often intensify rapidly overnight making them one of
the more dangerous weather systems to affect the NSW coast. East coast lows are also observed off the coast of Africa and America and are sometimes known as east coast cyclones. How do they form? ECLs may form in a variety of weather situations. In summer they can be ex-tropical cyclones. At other times of the year, they will most often develop rapidly just offshore within a pre-existing trough of low pressure due to favourable conditions in the upper atmosphere.
ECLs may also develop in the wake of a cold front moving across from Victoria into the Tasman Sea. The sea surface temperature gradients associated with the warm eddies of the East Australian Current also contribute to the development of the lows. The gales and heavy rain occur on and near the coast south of the low centre, while to the north of the low there can be clear skies. The challenge for forecasters is to accurately predict the location and movement of the centre of the low.

Why are they dangerous?

ECLs can generate one or more of:
Gale or storm force winds along the coast and adjacent waters Heavy widespread rainfall leading to flash and/or major river flooding, Very rough seas and prolonged heavy swells over coastal and ocean waters which can cause damage to the coastline. Falling trees and flash flooding have caused fatalities on the land, many small craft have been lost off the coast and larger vessels have run aground during these events.

How often do they form and is there a trend?

The Bureau has a detailed database of these lows beginning in 1973. Each year there are about ten "significant impact" maritime lows. Generally, only once per year do we see "explosive" development. Looking at all the lows between 1973 - 2004, there is no evidence of a trend.

What warnings does the Bureau issue for East Coast Lows?

Over land areas Severe Weather Warnings are used to warn of the dangerous winds, damaging surf and heavy rain leading to flash flooding. If needed, Flood Warnings are also issued to warn of river flooding. Over the sea the standard Marine Wind Warnings are used.

What is the difference between an East Coast Lowand a Tropical Cyclone?

Tropical Cyclones develop over very warm tropical waters where the sea surface temperature is greater than 26°C. They have relatively long life cycles, typically about a week, and severe tropical cyclones (category 3 or greater) can produce significant property damage with wind speeds over 180km/h near the centre, heavy rainfall and coastal inundation through storm surge. Tropical Cyclone "Justin", which affected the Queensland Region in March 1997, lasted for 18 days! ECLs generally have much shorter lifetimes than Tropical Cyclones and last only a few days. They develop over the Tasman Sea close to the NSW coast and can intensify rapidly in the overnight period. Unlike Tropical Cyclones, where the warm seas provide the energy source, East Coast Lows are driven by the temperature gradient between the Tasman Sea air and cold air in the high levels of the atmosphere over the continent. They can produce gale to storm-force winds, very heavy rainfall and in some cases coastal inundation. While maximum wind speeds recorded are lower than in severe tropical cyclones, a gust of 165 km/h was recorded at Newcastle associated with the east coast low that sunk the bulk carrier Sygna in 1974. During the first of the ECLs in June 2007, when the bulk carrier Pasha Bulker ran aground, gusts of 105 km/h at 6:21am on 8 June and 124 km/hr at 1:32am on 9 June were recorded at Newcastle. Source : Bureau of Meteorology, NSW Regional Office ( June 2007 )
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/sevwx/facts/ecl.shtml